Buying Points Sports Betting

3/16/2022admin

What Does Buying Points Mean In Sports Betting
Sports Betting Lines
Buying Points Sports Betting Parlay

The Point Spread: Betting the spread For those new to sports betting, the point spread is the simplest, most straightforward approach to placing wagers. Sports books set a predetermined margin of points on a game and a team must win – or not lose – by that set number. The majority of online sportsbooks offer the ability to purchase half points off point spreads and totals. This is generally at 10 cents each. If a point spread is 5.5 you can bet the favorite -5.5 -110, -5 -120, or -4.5 -130 or the underdog +5.5 -110, +6 -120, +6.5 -130. The same can be done for over/under betting (NFL based). Buying points in certain situations can be a viable strategy for sports bettors. However, no matter if you’re a newcomer to sports betting and buying. A final point to mention here is that the exact rules of buying points, and the associated costs, can vary at different betting sites. Some sites limit the amount of points you can buy to one and a half points, while others allow you to buy more.

How to understand “buying points”?

What does the betting term “buying points” mean?

What characterizes “buying points”?

If you bet on the NFL or college football, you have likely come across the term «buying points».

A typical line for a game may look like this:

USC, -15, -110;
Washington, +15, -110.

So, if you want to take Washington +15 points, you would receive a 90% return on your investment if they end up covering.

But if you want to «buy points» (for instance, you want 20 points and not 15), you can accomplish this by «buying» points. Let’s consider the following line on Washington where you are buying five points: Washington, +20, -275.

So, in this case, if Washington loses by less than 20 points, you would win your bet. However, the odds are significantly worse.

In the first case (Washington, +15), you would need to bet $110 in order to win $100 in profit back.

In the second case (Washington, +20), you would need to bet $275 in order to win $100 in profit back.

This is «buying points» – the more points you buy, the better chance you have of winning. Of course, when buying points you are also sacrificing return.

Introduction

This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.

The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.

Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread

Spread	Sell 1.5	Sell 1.0	Sell 0.5	Buy 0.5	Buy 1.0	Buy 1.5
-14	117	114	111	-111	-116	-121
-13.5	127	123	112	-105	-109	-111
-13	129	117	105	-105	-106	-108
-12.5	122	109	105	-102	-103	-110
-12	111	106	102	-102	-108	-114
-11.5	108	103	102	-106	-112	-123
-11	109	108	106	-106	-116	-125
-10.5	114	112	106	-109	-118	-121
-10	122	116	109	-109	-111	-113
-9.5	126	118	109	-102	-104	-108
-9	120	111	102	-102	-106	-111
-8.5	113	104	102	-104	-109	-122
-8	108	106	104	-104	-116	-128
-7.5	111	109	104	-111	-123	-133
-7	121	116	111	-111	-119	-127
-6.5	129	123	111	-107	-114	-118
-6	131	120	107	-107	-110	-113
-5.5	128	114	107	-103	-106	-114
-5	117	110	103	-103	-110	-117
-4.5	114	106	103	-107	-114	-141
-4	113	110	107	-107	-131	-154
-3.5	118	114	107	-122	-144	-151
-3	137	129	120	-120	-125	-130
-2.5	156	144	122	-104	-108	-114
-2	150	127	104	-104	-109	-114
-1.5	133	108	104	-105	-109	-110
-1	113	109	105	-105	-105	-105
0	110	105	EV	EV	-105	-110
1	105	105	105	-105	-109	-113
1.5	110	109	105	-104	-108	-133
2	114	109	104	-104	-127	-150
2.5	114	108	104	-122	-144	-156
3	130	125	120	-120	-129	-137
3.5	151	144	122	-107	-114	-118
4	154	131	107	-107	-110	-113
4.5	141	114	107	-103	-106	-114
5	117	110	103	-103	-110	-117
5.5	114	106	103	-107	-114	-128
6	113	110	107	-107	-120	-131
6.5	118	114	107	-111	-123	-129
7	127	119	111	-111	-116	-121
7.5	133	123	111	-104	-109	-111
8	128	116	104	-104	-106	-108
8.5	122	109	104	-102	-104	-113
9	111	106	102	-102	-111	-120
9.5	108	104	102	-109	-118	-126
10	113	111	109	-109	-116	-122
10.5	121	118	109	-106	-112	-114
11	125	116	106	-106	-108	-109
11.5	123	112	106	-102	-103	-108
12	114	108	102	-102	-106	-111
12.5	110	103	102	-105	-109	-122
13	108	106	105	-105	-117	-129
13.5	111	109	105	-112	-123	-127
14	121	116	111	-111	-114	-117

The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.

Buying and Selling Points off of the Total

Total	Sell 1.5	Sell 1.0	Sell 0.5	Buy 0.5	Buy 1.0	Buy 1.5
33	113	111	108	-108	-116	-123
33.5	120	117	108	-107	-114	-120
34	125	116	107	-107	-112	-116
34.5	124	114	107	-104	-109	-114
35	119	112	104	-104	-109	-113
35.5	117	109	104	-104	-108	-121
36	113	109	104	-104	-116	-127
36.5	113	108	104	-111	-122	-130
37	119	115	110	-110	-117	-124
37.5	127	122	111	-106	-112	-116
38	129	118	106	-106	-110	-113
38.5	125	112	106	-103	-107	-114
39	116	110	103	-103	-110	-116
39.5	113	107	103	-106	-112	-122
40	113	110	106	-106	-115	-124
40.5	116	112	106	-108	-117	-121
41	121	115	108	-108	-112	-115
41.5	125	117	108	-103	-107	-114
42	121	112	103	-103	-110	-117
42.5	116	107	103	-107	-113	-122
43	113	110	106	-106	-115	-123
43.5	117	113	107	-108	-115	-125
44	122	115	107	-107	-116	-124
44.5	124	115	108	-108	-115	-120
45	124	116	107	-107	-112	-116
45.5	125	115	108	-104	-108	-117
46	120	112	104	-104	-113	-121
46.5	116	108	104	-108	-117	-125
47	117	112	108	-108	-115	-122
47.5	122	117	108	-106	-113	-120
48	124	116	106	-106	-113	-119
48.5	123	113	106	-106	-112	-118
49	119	113	106	-106	-112	-118
49.5	119	112	106	-106	-111	-124
50	118	112	106	-106	-117	-128
50.5	118	111	106	-111	-122	-133
51	123	117	110	-110	-120	-129
51.5	129	122	111	-108	-117	-122
52	131	120	108	-108	-113	-118

2010 Super Bowl Example

What Does Buying Points Mean In Sports Betting

Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints

Spread	Pinnacle Line	Fair Line	Expected Value
+7	-144	-130	-4.16%
+6.5	-124	-116	-2.93%
+6	-116	-109	-2.86%
+5.5	-106	-102	-1.87%
+5	-103	101	-1.92%
+4.5	100	104	-1.91%
+4	107	112	-2.13%

The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts

Spread	Pinnacle Line	Fair Line	Expected Value
-7	128	130	-0.96%
-6.5	110	116	-2.84%
-6	103	109	-2.90%
-5.5	-102	102	-1.96%
-5	-110	-101	-4.09%
-4.5	-114	-104	-4.35%
-4	-122	-112	-4.07%

I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.

Sports Betting Lines

Methodology

The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.

Disclaimer

Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.

One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.

Buying Points Sports Betting Parlay

Written by: Michael Shackleford